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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."